Fall of a Regime

The mistakes that Bassar Al Assad made that caused him to lose decades of rule in less than two weeks.

As we close in on the fourteenth year of the Syrian Civil War the government of Bassar Al Assad, which had ruled Syria for almost 25 years was overthrown by a surprise ten-day offensive, spear-headed by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) under the leadership of Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani.

On November 27th, 2024, HTS rebels escalated the Syrian Civil War by attacking and capturing the key city of Aleppo, before continuing their march into Damascus. The formerly designated terrorist group conducted a series of rapid movements, pushing deeper into the southern part of Syria on their road to the capital city. 

The offensive caught the Ba'athist regime off-guard, as such an offensive had not been operated since 2020 after the failed Idlib offensive. As such, the city of Aleppo fell in under a day on November 30th. By then, HTS had captured vast swathes of territory that encompassed the M5 highway connecting Aleppo to the capital of Damascus.

In an effort to make the motivation behind the operation appear more just, HTS spoke of their actions mindfully, dubbing the attack in Aleppo: “Deterrence of Aggression.” In light of their attempts to gain legitimacy from the U.N, they heightened their efforts to cultivate a strong image of liberation, therefore continuing to label their operations as defensive in the face of Assad’s shelling of Idlib civilians. 

As the offensive reached its final day on December 10th, droves of Ba'athist military officers were fleeing the nation, as HTS rebels quickly began closing in on the capital city of Damascus. Former Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad was forced to evacuate the country and escape to Russia after the seizure of Damascus by rebel forces, effectively ending 24 years of his rule. 

Many experts have described HTS’s offensive as a “blitzkrieg,” or a lighting warfare that pierced quickly into undefended territory, which successfully seized control of the government after a 4-year-long stalemate.

Assad alienated his populace through the brutality of his tactics against resistance movements. The Arab Spring that had plunged the nation into civil war had only begun on account of the Assad regime’s suppression of its citizens since the 70s, leaving the Syrian people yearning for freedom and security.

“The people have no electricity, no water, no gasoline, no diesel, no bread… so it needed a savior. These revolutionaries came and all the people supported them,” says Georges Massara-- retired engineer and former Syrian civilian.

According to a poll run by the Syrian Network for Human Rights, at least 202,000 civilians were killed at the hands of Bashar Assad’s regime forces, including 12,010 women and 23,058 children.

Assad was overly reliant on his allies; countries and organizations such as Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah all previously supported the Ba'athist regime. Assad’s allies were all preoccupied with conflicts of their own.

“As Putin got more bogged down in Ukraine, he needed more resources and men-- he couldn’t provide Assad with as much support as before,” says New Roads history teacher Cody Brown. 

Iran and Hezbollah, one of Assad’s key supporters in providing assistance and support to their forces, started to draw back support, as shifting interests, and other international conflicts caused Iranian leadership to rethink supporting Assad against this attack. 

“When the rebels came into Aleppo, the Iranian foreign minister made a trip to Damascus, and posted himself saying how everything was great in Damascus… but on that trip, he privately told Assad that Iran could not help him,” says New Roads history teacher Patricia Bentivoglio.

(Photo courtesy of Associated Press)

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace explains how, “...by the time rebels launched their offensive, neither Iran nor Russia saw sufficient value in expanding further resources to prop up a regime that had become more liability than asset. Assad’s growing independence had effectively undermined the very partnerships that had sustained his rule for over a decade.”

However, military woes, and low morale of military forces would serve as Assad's achilles heel, as the dwindling resolve that the military of the Baathist regime faced caused its failure to prevent the more motivated and optimistic offensive that steamrolled Assad’s forces. 

Syria expert at the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs David Rigoulet-Roze said it best when he explained how, “…since 2011, Syria's army has faced attrition in manpower, equipment and morale… as underpaid soldiers reportedly looted resources to survive, and many young men evaded conscription.”

Assad attempted to mitigate this issue, as France 24 stated how he, “...ordered a 50 percent raise in career soldiers' pay in a desperate effort to bolster his crumbling army. But with Syria's economy in tatters, soldiers' salaries are almost worthless and the move had little impact.”

As the dust settles, Syria's fate remains undecided, as multiple observers fear the vacuum that Assad has brought about Syria after his escape from Damascus. Multiple countries such as Turkey, the U.S, Iran, and potentially Israel, seek to influence the newly formed government, as Syria enters an uncertain future, free of Assad rule. 

“...I am optimistic, but still have my reservations because these groups that took over the country are groups united by Islamic terrorist extremism,” said Massara. “...I hope that it will be better than the late regime.”