Has America Entered Its Seventh Party System?

America has had numerous changes to its political ideals ever since the days of Washington. However, are we entering a new era of populist dominance, or is neo-liberalism still the dominating figure in American politics?

The reelection of Donald Trump as President of the United States in 2024 was distinctive in that only once before had a President been reelected after losing an election as the incumbent office holder.  With this arguably surprising turn of events, social scientists began to wonder whether the populist movement had now become a fixture of our political system. 

With Republican candidates such as Trump and JD Vance, and Democrats like Bernie Sanders and Zohran Mamdani, populism has become a growing force within both parties, breaking from old establishment lines of Neoliberalism and Neoconservatism.

Through this theoretical political realignment, there is one question that many political experts and think tanks are asking: has the U.S. truly entered a seventh-party system? The answer is complicated and riddled with debate. 

The party system refers to the different eras America’s political system has faced, with specific ideas dominating both political parties depending on the historical context. 

The first party system started after the foundation of America between 1792 and 1794. It was led by George Washington, the first president of the United States, and encompassed two parties, the pro-government Federalists under Alexander Hamilton and John Adams, versus the more constitutional and states' rights focused Democratic-Republicans under Thomas Jefferson and James Madison. 

The second party system that was formed was the Jacksonian era of politics, which was dominated by the famous War of 1812 general Andrew Jackson. Calls for universal voting rights for all white men became a staple of this era, as the formation of the democratic party began in this era. 

The third-party system began after the election of Abraham Lincoln and the Republicans. Born out of the ashes of the failed Whig party, the party called for a strong national government, freedom for African American men, and higher tariffs. 

The fourth party system, also known as the Progressive Era, was born in backlash to the Gilded Age; the point in American history where oligarchs controlled every part of American politics through monopolies and corruption under leaders such as Theodore Roosevelt, William H. Taft, and Woodrow Wilson. 

The fifth party system would be born out of the failures of Republican leadership during the Great Depression, which led to the election of Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1932, beginning the New Deal Era, a period of rapid government spending and social programs. 

Following this period of increased government spending and social programs, a massive recession led to the creation of the sixth party system, which is the system we are currently in. Pushed by former president Ronald Reagan, the government pushed for far more cuts in taxes and spending in social programs, while pushing for more spending on the military.

The argument for the Seventh party system still has its holes, because although it meets some of the standards: larger than life populists figures —Trump, Bernie Sanders— and changing economic demographics, there are still some arguments against this claim, with social coalitions being the main evidence behind this.

“...another part of party system change is often changes in the support coalitions of at least one, if not both of the two major parties,” said Professor and chair of the University of Maine Political Science Department, Dr. Mark Brewer. “And I think that in the situation we presently find ourselves in the United States, we've got evidence for both of those things being true.”

Noticeably, that shift in support coalitions is present in both major parties. Republicans, who once targeted suburban middle-class Americans, now predominantly target midwestern blue-collar workers, with Trump performing extraordinarily well in the worker-heavy regions of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, states that haven’t gone red since the days of George H.W Bush. 

Republicans and Democrats have also seen a shift among educated voters. According to r the Pew Research Center, “...until about two decades ago, the Republican Party fared better among college graduates and worse among those without a college degree.”

(Photograph: Pew Research Center)

Despite these voter changes, not every sector of American society has shifted. Social issues, primarily with LGBTQ, civil, and women's rights, have been closely kept within the lines of the two parties (with Republicans generally being the party of conservative, more religious beliefs, anti-abortion stances, while Democrats typically adopt more secular and socially progressive beliefs, including pro-choice ones).

This trend has stayed relatively the same since the days of Reagan and the sixth party system. 

“...the parties today really maintain the positions that they had during the 80s and the 90s,” says Dr. Brewer. He adds, “The Republican Party, if anything, has become even more conservative on culture… [the party] continues to be white evangelical Protestant… while the Democratic Party continues to be very liberal and progressive on culture war issues.” 

There have been shifts in communities of color, as shown in the 2024 election when Trump made breakthrough gains in Latino and African-American communities. However, overall voting demographics between the parties have remained relatively similar, with the Roper Center reporting that Harris still carried strength among women and people of color, while Trump kept the majority among  white and male voters. 

While there are several ideas that might indicate America is shifting towards a new, more populist system of governance —increased protectionism with tariffs, nationalism, and anti establishment attitudes on the right, while universal healthcare, taxing the rich, and immigration reform ideology become more prevalent on the left— only time will tell if real change is going to occur. 

When figures such as Franklin Roosevelt and Reagan left office, their legacies carried on to their successors, leading to decades of political dominance for their respective ideologies.  

“One of the practical things we need to do is kind of wait and see what happens in a world where Trump's not on the ballot,” Dr. Brewer points out. “We want to see if some of these changed voting patterns, changed support coalitions, changed issue positions that we've seen over the last decade or so maintain themselves.”

Unless we see any unforeseen changes to America's term limits, Trump will be ineligible to run for a third term, marking the first time since 2016 when Trump wasn’t on the Republican ballot. In 2028, the Republican Party will likely promote Vice President JD Vance, or another MAGA-affiliated candidate, as a successor to Trump in an attempt to push his ideas forward. 

Democrats, on the other hand, are much more difficult to predict. A deepening division grips the democratic party, as establishment figures such as Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries, and Nancy Pelosi push against other movements within the party, like the populist ideas coming from figures such as Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Zohran Mamdani.

“You see that within the internal tension within the Democratic Party… they want to stay at the party that they have been at during the sixth system…”, Dr. Brewer explains.

He asks, “[should the party] embrace candidates like someone such as a Joe Biden or Bill Clinton or Hillary Clinton… kind of more moderate, slightly left of center type? Or do they need to go much further left of center?”

Will Democrats accept the winds of change, or are the seeds of a seventh party system not yet ready to sprout in our polarized climate?